Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
